2010 Jobs Forecast – Signs of Improvement

The fourth quarter of 2009 is showing encouraging trends for the U.S. economy:

• factory orders rose unexpectedly during October, the sixth month of gains out of the previous seven months

• home sales increased by 7.4% in November, to the highest level in nearly 3 years, fueled by federal support

• the unemployment rate dipped in November, shedding only 11,000 jobs, the smallest monthly loss since December, 2007

Consumer spending, an important driver of economic growth, increased by 3.6% during December compared to a year ago.

Projections for 2010 suggest slower economic growth during the first quarter, picking up as the year progresses.

What Does This Mean for Jobs During 2010?

Over the past three months, 4.1 million people were hired each month, so there are jobs out there. However, 15.4 million workers are out of work and economists suggest it could be mid-decade before the unemployment rate drops to a more normal 5 – 6% and stays there. There clearly is a lot of competition for the jobs that are opening up.

The number of temporary workers has increased over each of the past 5 months, suggesting that hiring managers will soon consider turning temporary positions into permanent ones.

In fact, in a recent survey 20% of employers said they expect to add jobs in 2010 (up from 14% in 2009), especially in service industries (customer service, hospitality). Jobs gains are also expected for positions that increase business and bring customers back, such as tech and sales positions.

Job-Hunting Tip: What is the single biggest mistake job seekers make? Blindly emailing out too many generic resumes and not talking with people in person. Instead,  target specific companies and jobs, and continue to expand your network. Be tenacious and go back to targeted companies every 3 or 4 weeks and inquire about openings.

As the shift continues from cost-containment to growth, jobs are likely to be added first in the following industries:

• retail

• entertainment

• autos and manufacturing

• financial and business services

• computers and information technology

• energy

• healthcare

In some cases the layoffs have been so steep and inventories cut so low that companies can’t continue to deliver without hiring.

While 61% of surveyed employers remain cautious and say they do not plan to change staffing levels during 2010, 37% plan to take advantage of the large labor pool and replace underperformers.

Job Security Tip: To secure your job, and perhaps even get a raise during 2010, excel at what you do and make sure your boss and other higher-ups notice. Be indespensible – perform a needed function better than anyone else, even if it means learning something new.

Job Security Strategies for 2010

What about salaries?

Fifty four percent of companies who froze salaries during 2009 intend to issue small increases during 2010 (3% or less). People with in-demand skills that serve a strategic purpose are most likely to see a salary increase.

10 Jobs That Will Get a Raise in 2010

The Geography of the Jobs Picture

States that expect to show job growth during 2010 are led by Texas (1 – 2%, perhaps more) and include Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Hampshire and Washington D.C.

In general, cities that saw home prices decline the least seem to be among the first to begin recovering lost jobs. They include: Brownsville, TX, Huntsville, AL, Lawrence, KS, McAllen, TX and Mount Vernon, WA,

Jobs Forecast by Geography

Top 10 Cities for Employment in 2010

While the economic recovery continues to be fragile, conditions are much improved over the free fall of a year ago. In fact, 82% of Americans surveyed expect 2010 to be better than 2009, despite continuing concern for their personal finances.

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